Thermal inactivation scaling applied for SARS-CoV-2

Based on a model of protein denaturation rate limited by an entropy-related barrier, we derive a simple formula for virus inactivation time as a function of temperature. Loss of protein structure is described by two reaction coordinates: conformational disorder of the polymer and wetting by the solvent. These establish a competition between conformational entropy and hydrophobic interaction favoring random coil or globular states, respectively. Based on the Landau theory of phase transition, the resulting free energy barrier is found to decrease linearly with the temperature difference T − T_m, and the inactivation rate should scale as U to the power of T − T_m. This form recalls an accepted model of thermal damage to cells in hyperthermia. For SARS-CoV-2 the value of U in Celsius units is found to be 1.32. Although the fitting of the model to measured data is practically indistinguishable from Arrhenius law with an activation energy, the entropy barrier mechanism is more suitable and could explain the pronounced sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 to thermal damage. Accordingly, we predict the efficacy of mild fever over a period of ∼24 h in inactivating the virus.