Abstract
We create the VIX's term structure of five US active stocks over the next 1 to 12 months and examine how the shape of the VIX's term structure affects the evolution of the stocks’ prices. We find that the level, slope, and curvature of the VIX's term structure are significant predictors of future returns. Decomposing the VIX of individual stocks into physical volatility and variance risk premiums reveals that the variance risk premium of individual stocks is a significant predictor of future returns. Finally, the VIX and variance risk premiums of individual stocks are priced differently for different time horizons.
| Original language | American English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 105036 |
| Journal | Finance Research Letters |
| Volume | 61 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Mar 2024 |
Keywords
- Return predictability
- VIX
- Variance risk premium
- Volatility index
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Finance
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