The predictive role of counterfactuals

Alfredo Di Tillio; Itzhak Gilboa; Larry Samuelson

doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6

The predictive role of counterfactuals

Alfredo Di Tillio, Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson

School of Economics

Tel Aviv University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	167-182
Number of pages	16
Journal	Theory and Decision
Volume	74
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6
State	Published - Feb 2013

Keywords

Counterfactuals
Induction
Prediction

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General Decision Sciences
Developmental and Educational Psychology
Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)
General Economics,Econometrics and Finance
Applied Psychology
Computer Science Applications
General Social Sciences

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https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6

Cite this

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title = "The predictive role of counterfactuals",

abstract = "We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.",

keywords = "Counterfactuals, Induction, Prediction",

author = "{Di Tillio}, Alfredo and Itzhak Gilboa and Larry Samuelson",

note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgments We thank Dov Samet and David Schmeidler for conversations that motivated and influenced this work. We are also grateful to Joe Altonji and Brian Hill for discussions, comments, and references. Itzhak Gilboa gratefully acknowledges ISF Grant 396/10 and ERC Grant 269754; Larry Samuelson gratefully acknowledges NSF Grant SES-0850263.",

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AU - Di Tillio, Alfredo

AU - Gilboa, Itzhak

AU - Samuelson, Larry

N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgments We thank Dov Samet and David Schmeidler for conversations that motivated and influenced this work. We are also grateful to Joe Altonji and Brian Hill for discussions, comments, and references. Itzhak Gilboa gratefully acknowledges ISF Grant 396/10 and ERC Grant 269754; Larry Samuelson gratefully acknowledges NSF Grant SES-0850263.

PY - 2013/2

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N2 - We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.

AB - We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.

KW - Counterfactuals

KW - Induction

KW - Prediction

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DO - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6

M3 - مقالة

SN - 0040-5833

VL - 74

SP - 167

EP - 182

JO - Theory and Decision

JF - Theory and Decision

IS - 2

ER -

The predictive role of counterfactuals

Abstract

Keywords

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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