The Need to Reexamine the Concept of the “Shiite Axis”

The major developments that have unfolded in the region since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip—and especially in recent months—require a renewed examination of the relevance of the concept of the “Shiite Axis” led by Iran. Over the past two decades, Tehran has worked to shape a network of regional actors—mainly sub-state entities—based on a shared ideology of resistance to Israel and the West, aiming to expand its influence and create strategic depth. While in the past, this “axis” was considered a centralized and well-coordinated system, it is now increasingly apparent that it functions more as a decentralized, ad hoc, and flexible network of actors with independent interests and identities, who exercise a much greater degree of autonomy. In addition, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the erosion of Hezbollah’s strategic capabilities, and the mounting pressures on the militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen—alongside the weakening of Iran’s own deterrence capacity—have significantly diminished the axis and undermined its cohesion. At the same time, the network that Iran has woven over the years continues to operate at a certain level of coordination and commitment, with Tehran still providing it with funding, weapons, and support. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider, over time, the need to shift the analysis of this regional aggregation from a hierarchical axis model to one of a loose and dynamic network. Moreover, it is essential to formulate tailored policies for each of its components, identifying internal rifts, vulnerabilities, and opportunities to weaken Iran’s grip on the region and disrupt the ties between its partners.