Abstract
15
The Future of Nationhood
in Israel
DAVID PASSIG
The last century proved that very few1 succeeded in forecasting the
future of Israel. Even the few whose forecasts turned out to be correct
employed a process that could, at best, be called hitting the target while
shooting in the dark. There was no use made of a reliable methodology—
one that would be open to evaluation.
Serious methodological problems are continuously evident in the
forecasts we constantly hear about Israel, because they can be consid-
ered—at least from the point of view of Futures Thinking—as the rumi-
nations of a novelist, personal inclinations, subjective values and assump-
tions; some based on fact, and others not. Few of the forecasts were made
on the basis of any research methods, and very few of them can be said to
be based on valid and reliable methods of forecasting. At the very best,
they lean on statistical methods that are linear extrapolations of processes
that took place in the past. Unfortunately, few know, for example, that the
reliability of forecasting based on linear extrapolation is no greater, on
average, than thirty percent.
Futures’ research of the last seven decades has proved that in the
immediate and short range (two to five years) prediction reliability
of linear extrapolation can reach up to 30 percent. If we are trying to
predict trends beyond two to five years, the reliability of the forecast
descends to 20 percent, especially when the systems we study are more
complex and unbalanced. Thus, failure to formulate reliable predictions,
which are the result of rational, valid, and transparent methodologies,
could be fatal to anyone seeking to understand the trends.
Therefore, herein I would like to suggest a different methodology,
with which I would like to evaluate trends in the nationhood of the State
of Israel in the long range—by mid twenty-first century.
This methodology could provide an alternative explanation for the
forces that are driving delegitimization of Israel as a national entity. This
methodology can help us identify Israel’s future social trends. Its reliability
in forecasting trends has been established to be more than sixty percent
The Future of Nationhood
in Israel
DAVID PASSIG
The last century proved that very few1 succeeded in forecasting the
future of Israel. Even the few whose forecasts turned out to be correct
employed a process that could, at best, be called hitting the target while
shooting in the dark. There was no use made of a reliable methodology—
one that would be open to evaluation.
Serious methodological problems are continuously evident in the
forecasts we constantly hear about Israel, because they can be consid-
ered—at least from the point of view of Futures Thinking—as the rumi-
nations of a novelist, personal inclinations, subjective values and assump-
tions; some based on fact, and others not. Few of the forecasts were made
on the basis of any research methods, and very few of them can be said to
be based on valid and reliable methods of forecasting. At the very best,
they lean on statistical methods that are linear extrapolations of processes
that took place in the past. Unfortunately, few know, for example, that the
reliability of forecasting based on linear extrapolation is no greater, on
average, than thirty percent.
Futures’ research of the last seven decades has proved that in the
immediate and short range (two to five years) prediction reliability
of linear extrapolation can reach up to 30 percent. If we are trying to
predict trends beyond two to five years, the reliability of the forecast
descends to 20 percent, especially when the systems we study are more
complex and unbalanced. Thus, failure to formulate reliable predictions,
which are the result of rational, valid, and transparent methodologies,
could be fatal to anyone seeking to understand the trends.
Therefore, herein I would like to suggest a different methodology,
with which I would like to evaluate trends in the nationhood of the State
of Israel in the long range—by mid twenty-first century.
This methodology could provide an alternative explanation for the
forces that are driving delegitimization of Israel as a national entity. This
methodology can help us identify Israel’s future social trends. Its reliability
in forecasting trends has been established to be more than sixty percent
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Israeli Nation-State |
| Editors | Fania Oz-Salzberger, Yedidia Stern |
| Place of Publication | Boston |
| Pages | 342-363 |
| Number of pages | 22 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9781618113924 |
| State | Published - 2014 |
RAMBI publications
- rambi
- Arab-Israeli conflict -- 21st century -- Forecasting
- Israel -- History -- 21st century
- Israel -- Politics and government -- Philosophy
- National characteristics, Israeli
- Nationalism -- Israel