The Decline in Marriage in Israel, 1960–2007: Period or Cohort Effect?

Over the past four decades, the more developed countries have experienced a marked decline in the marriage rates of both men and women. The reasons for the decline remain a debated issue. Three explanations predict that the decline in marriage is a period effect, while two predict that it is a birth cohort effect. To determine whether the decline is a period or a cohort effect, this study performed an age–period–cohort analysis. Using data from Israel, our results show that both cohort replacement and period factors were important. Until 1990–1994 the decline in marriage was a period effect, whereas after 1990–1994 the decline was a cohort effect. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for the three major explanations of the decline in marriage.