Terrorism and fertility: Evidence for a causal influence of terrorism on fertility

Claude Berrebi; Jordan Ostwald

doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpu042

Terrorism and fertility: Evidence for a causal influence of terrorism on fertility

Claude Berrebi, Jordan Ostwald

Federmann School of Public Policy

The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Using a panel data set of 170 countries and terrorism data from 1970 to 2007, we find that terrorist attacks decrease fertility as measured by both total fertility rates and crude birth rates. Furthermore, by using a novel instrumental variable approach, we identify a causal link and address endogeneity concerns related to the possibility of stress, caused by rising birth rates or transitioning demographics, affecting terrorism. We find that on average, terrorist attacks decrease fertility, reducing both the expected number of children a woman has over her lifetime and the number of live births occurring during each year. The results are statistically significant and robust across a multitude of model specifications, varying measures of fertility, and differing measures of terrorism.

Original language	American English
Article number	gpu042
Pages (from-to)	63-82
Number of pages	20
Journal	Oxford Economic Papers
Volume	67
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpu042
State	Published - 1 Jan 2015

Keywords

C33
C36
D72
J13

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Economics and Econometrics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpu042

Cite this

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abstract = "Using a panel data set of 170 countries and terrorism data from 1970 to 2007, we find that terrorist attacks decrease fertility as measured by both total fertility rates and crude birth rates. Furthermore, by using a novel instrumental variable approach, we identify a causal link and address endogeneity concerns related to the possibility of stress, caused by rising birth rates or transitioning demographics, affecting terrorism. We find that on average, terrorist attacks decrease fertility, reducing both the expected number of children a woman has over her lifetime and the number of live births occurring during each year. The results are statistically significant and robust across a multitude of model specifications, varying measures of fertility, and differing measures of terrorism.",

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AU - Ostwald, Jordan

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N2 - Using a panel data set of 170 countries and terrorism data from 1970 to 2007, we find that terrorist attacks decrease fertility as measured by both total fertility rates and crude birth rates. Furthermore, by using a novel instrumental variable approach, we identify a causal link and address endogeneity concerns related to the possibility of stress, caused by rising birth rates or transitioning demographics, affecting terrorism. We find that on average, terrorist attacks decrease fertility, reducing both the expected number of children a woman has over her lifetime and the number of live births occurring during each year. The results are statistically significant and robust across a multitude of model specifications, varying measures of fertility, and differing measures of terrorism.

AB - Using a panel data set of 170 countries and terrorism data from 1970 to 2007, we find that terrorist attacks decrease fertility as measured by both total fertility rates and crude birth rates. Furthermore, by using a novel instrumental variable approach, we identify a causal link and address endogeneity concerns related to the possibility of stress, caused by rising birth rates or transitioning demographics, affecting terrorism. We find that on average, terrorist attacks decrease fertility, reducing both the expected number of children a woman has over her lifetime and the number of live births occurring during each year. The results are statistically significant and robust across a multitude of model specifications, varying measures of fertility, and differing measures of terrorism.

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Terrorism and fertility: Evidence for a causal influence of terrorism on fertility

Abstract

Keywords

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

UN SDGs

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