Solar maximum and spacecraft protection

Many assumptions have been made regarding the effect of a solar storm equivalent to the one in 1859, the so- called Carrington event, were it to occur today. The solar storm in 1859 was so large that even the US Telegraph system was reported to be noticeably affected. Geomagnetically induced currents of magnitudes sufficient to power the telegraph equipment unaided were measured, and in extreme cases caused some telegraph equipment to catch fire. The intensity of the next solar cycle maximum, scheduled for the end of 2013, cannot be predicted, but based on previous solar cycle events they can be so intense that even protected satellites are at risk. Such an event would have wide-reaching consequences, both on strategically important satellites as well as on the fleet of commercial satellite operators. A team project was undertaken at the International Space University (ISU) Space Studies Program (SSP) 2013 to categorize and mitigate the risks involved in such a solar event. The project adopted a classical risk assessment approach, putting the various satellites into different categories in terms of their type and radiation environment. In addition to the basic built-in protection systems, the lead- Time on forecasting and associated warnings for such events has increased thanks to a greater number of solar observation satellites such as SOHO. Indeed, forewarned is forearmed: This will allow operators to implement a limited number of countermeasures in the face of such imminent threats. The impact of these solar events on strategic assets such as navigation systems is also considered, as it may lead to a disruption of location-based services, military and other strategic satellites. Finally, there is an associated business risk for satellite operators in the face of this space weather phenomenon. The loss of transponder capacity during a geomagnetic storm caused by increased solar activity, be it temporarily or permanent, will lead to interruption of services and income losses for the telecom operators. In addition to the technical aspects, operators must consider a number of business risk mitigation strategies (e.g. insurance or risk- sharing). Such a mitigation strategy will need to take into account countermeasures allowing the system to react to an advanced warning.