Short-term load forecasting in smart meters with sliding window-based ARIMA algorithms

Dima Alberg, Mark Last

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Forecasting of electricity consumption for residential and industrial customers is an important task providing intelligence to the smart grid. Accurate forecasting should allow a utility provider to plan the resources as well as to take control actions to balance the supply and the demand of electricity. This paper presents two non-seasonal and two seasonal sliding window-based ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) algorithms. These algorithms are developed for short-term forecasting of hourly electricity load. The algorithms integrate non-seasonal and seasonal ARIMA models with the OLIN (Online Information Network) methodology. To evaluate our approach, we use a real hourly consumption data stream recorded by six smart meters during a 16-month period.

Original languageAmerican English
Title of host publicationIntelligent Information and Database Systems - 9th Asian Conference, ACIIDS 2017, Proceedings
EditorsSatoshi Tojo, Le Minh Nguyen, Ngoc Thanh Nguyen, Bogdan Trawinski
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages299-307
Number of pages9
ISBN (Print)9783319544298
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2017
Event9th Asian Conference on Intelligent Information and Database Systems, ACIIDS 2017 - Kanazawa, Japan
Duration: 3 Apr 20175 Apr 2017

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume10192 LNAI

Conference

Conference9th Asian Conference on Intelligent Information and Database Systems, ACIIDS 2017
Country/TerritoryJapan
CityKanazawa
Period3/04/175/04/17

Keywords

  • ARIMA
  • Incremental learning
  • Internet of things
  • Online Information network
  • Short-term forecasting
  • Sliding window
  • Smart grid

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Theoretical Computer Science
  • General Computer Science

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