Self-driven criticality in a stochastic epidemic model

Gil Ariel, Yoram Louzoun

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We present a generic epidemic model with stochastic parameters in which the dynamics self-organize to a critical state with suppressed exponential growth. More precisely, the dynamics evolve into a quasi-steady state, where the effective reproduction rate fluctuates close to the critical value 1 for a long period, as indeed observed for different epidemics. The main assumptions underlying the model are that the rate at which each individual becomes infected changes stochastically in time with a heavy-tailed steady state. The critical regime is characterized by an extremely long duration of the epidemic. Its stability is analyzed both numerically and analytically in different models.

Original languageEnglish
Article number062303
JournalPhysical Review E
Volume103
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Condensed Matter Physics
  • Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
  • Statistics and Probability

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