Redefining vigilance: reevaluating the meaning of early warning in Israel’s security doctrine and the October 7 attack

Israel was caught off guard by Hamas attack on October 7, underscoring vulnerabilities in its national security apparatus. Scholars and practitioners primarily attribute this failure to intelligence oversights and misinterpretations of Hamas’ intentions and capabilities. However, we argue that the October 7 attack represents more than an intelligence failure; it highlights a breakdown in multiple elements of Israel’s security doctrine, focusing on early warning–one of Israel’s basic security doctrine pillars. This failure stemmed from the evolving definition of early warning and Israel’s lack of adaptation of its strategies to shifts in its threat landscape.