Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts

Nathan Goldstein; Ben Zion Zilberfarb

doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.11.017

Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts

Nathan Goldstein, Ben Zion Zilberfarb

Department of Economics

Bar-Ilan University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We examine the seasonal pattern in expectations, using a unique Israeli survey of quarterly inflation forecasts. Rationality is rejected with respect to (trivial) information about calendar quarter. Seasonal bias is strongest at shorter horizons and in a low inflation environment.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	86-90
Number of pages	5
Journal	Economics Letters
Volume	150
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.11.017
State	Published - 1 Jan 2017

Keywords

Rational expectations
Seasonality
Survey forecasts

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Finance
Economics and Econometrics

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.11.017

Cite this

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title = "Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts",

abstract = "We examine the seasonal pattern in expectations, using a unique Israeli survey of quarterly inflation forecasts. Rationality is rejected with respect to (trivial) information about calendar quarter. Seasonal bias is strongest at shorter horizons and in a low inflation environment.",

keywords = "Rational expectations, Seasonality, Survey forecasts",

author = "Nathan Goldstein and Zilberfarb, {Ben Zion}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2016 Elsevier B.V.",

year = "2017",

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KW - Rational expectations

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KW - Survey forecasts

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DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.11.017

M3 - مقالة

SN - 0165-1765

VL - 150

SP - 86

EP - 90

JO - Economics Letters

JF - Economics Letters

ER -

Rationality and seasonality: Evidence from inflation forecasts

Abstract

Keywords

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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