Precursors of summer heat waves in the Eastern Mediterranean

Chaim I. Garfinkel, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, Efrat Morin, Assaf Hochman, Chen Schwartz, Ronit Nirel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Reanalysis and observational data are used to identify the precursors of summertime heat waves over the Eastern Mediterranean. After compiling a list of heat waves using objective criteria, we identify robust precursors present 7–10 days before the onset of the heat wave, longer than the typical horizon for trustworthy weather forecasts. If these precursors are present, there is a significant warming over the Eastern Mediterranean over the following 10 days that persists for weeks after. These precursors include a weakened Indian monsoon, a strengthened Sahelian monsoon, warm Western/Central Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures, and a midlatitude low-pressure system from the west. Further, horizontal temperature advection is the proximate cause of the heat wave in the days before the extreme; in particular, a weakening of the Etesian winds that would otherwise advect relatively cool maritime air inland accounts for around half of the warming. There has been a clear tendency for more heat extremes in recent years. These results have implications for forecasting anomalous summer temperatures in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the framework developed here can also be applied in other regions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3757-3773
Number of pages17
JournalQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Volume150
Issue number763
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jul 2024

Keywords

  • Eastern Mediterranean
  • Extreme weather
  • Heat waves
  • Indian Monsoon
  • Middle-East
  • subseasonal predictability

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

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