Optimizing Time Series Models for Water Demand Forecasting †

This study focuses on optimizing time series forecasting models for water demand in a North Italian city as part of the Battle of the Water Demand Forecast (BWDF) challenge. It aims to accurately predict water demands across ten district-metered areas (DMAs) using historical data and weather information over a one-week horizon. The methodology encompasses data preprocessing, including missing data imputation, feature engineering, and novel normalization techniques, followed by the development and hyperparameter optimization of various data-driven models such as random forest, XGB, LSTM, and Prophet. Extensive cross-validation tests assess each model’s performance, revealing that our refined approach markedly enhances forecast accuracy, demonstrating the importance of model and parameter selection for effective water demand forecasting.