Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

Takahiro Omi; Ido Kanter; Shigeru Shinomoto

doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.83.026101

Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

Takahiro Omi
, Ido Kanter
, Shigeru Shinomoto

Department of Physics - at Bar-Ilan University

Bar-Ilan University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We report that the accuracy of predicting the occurrence time of the next earthquake is significantly enhanced by observing the latest rate of earthquake occurrences. The observation period that minimizes the temporal uncertainty of the next occurrence is on the order of 10 hours. This result is independent of the threshold magnitude and is consistent across different geographic areas. This time scale is much shorter than the months or years that have previously been considered characteristic of seismic activities.

Original language	English GB
Article number	026101
Journal	Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Volume	83
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.83.026101
State	Published - 2 Feb 2011

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Condensed Matter Physics
Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Statistics and Probability

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10.1103/PhysRevE.83.026101

Cite this

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abstract = "We report that the accuracy of predicting the occurrence time of the next earthquake is significantly enhanced by observing the latest rate of earthquake occurrences. The observation period that minimizes the temporal uncertainty of the next occurrence is on the order of 10 hours. This result is independent of the threshold magnitude and is consistent across different geographic areas. This time scale is much shorter than the months or years that have previously been considered characteristic of seismic activities.",

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N2 - We report that the accuracy of predicting the occurrence time of the next earthquake is significantly enhanced by observing the latest rate of earthquake occurrences. The observation period that minimizes the temporal uncertainty of the next occurrence is on the order of 10 hours. This result is independent of the threshold magnitude and is consistent across different geographic areas. This time scale is much shorter than the months or years that have previously been considered characteristic of seismic activities.

AB - We report that the accuracy of predicting the occurrence time of the next earthquake is significantly enhanced by observing the latest rate of earthquake occurrences. The observation period that minimizes the temporal uncertainty of the next occurrence is on the order of 10 hours. This result is independent of the threshold magnitude and is consistent across different geographic areas. This time scale is much shorter than the months or years that have previously been considered characteristic of seismic activities.

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U2 - 10.1103/PhysRevE.83.026101

DO - 10.1103/PhysRevE.83.026101

M3 - مقالة

C2 - 21405883

SN - 1539-3755

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JO - Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

JF - Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

IS - 2

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Optimal observation time window for forecasting the next earthquake

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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