Modeling the sensitivity to environmental controls of the Late Pleistocene lacustrine delta sequences in the Dead Sea Basin

The late Pleistocene in the Dead Sea Basin is one of the most studied and well-dated underfilled lacustrine deposits in the world and therefore provides a unique opportunity for analyzing individual controlling factors by applying field data into a forward model. The analysis of the depositional history of basins commonly shows a nonunique solution caused by the interdependence of the depositional controlling factors. This can be demonstrated by modeling stratigraphic successions that were constructed using different sedimentary and tectonic values but visually look the same. Here, we used the computer forward simulation SEDPAK to reconstruct the stratigraphic sequences observed in the field using multiple data sets that were established for these deposits. By applying a high-resolution lake level curve, subsidence history, and depositional rates in the offshore sections, we reduced the uncertainties of the model that match outcrop observations. We were then able to test the sensitivity of the simulated cross section to changes in individual parameters and evaluate the contribution of each of them to the result. This allows checking for errors and locations where more data are needed. It also provides insights into the distribution and character of potential hydrocarbon reservoir facies.