Limited climate change mitigation potential through forestation of the vast dryland regions

Forestation of the vast global drylands has been considered a promising climate change mitigation strategy. However, its actual climatic benefits are uncertain because the forests’ reduced albedo can produce large warming effects. Using high-resolution spatial analysis of global drylands, we found 448 million hectares suitable for afforestation. This area’s carbon sequestration potential until 2100 is 32.3 billion tons of carbon (Gt C), but 22.6 Gt C of that is required to balance albedo effects. The net carbon equivalent would offset ~1% of projected medium-emissions and business-as-usual scenarios over the same period. Focusing forestation only on areas with net cooling effects would use half the area and double the emissions offset. Although such smart forestation is clearly important, its limited climatic benefits reinforce the need to reduce emissions rapidly. Just a little help Forestation of the global drylands has been suggested to be a way to decrease global warming, but how much promise does it actually have? Rohatyn et al. found that the climatic benefits are minor. Although drylands have considerable carbon sequestration potential, which could be used to lower the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and thereby slow warming, the reduction of albedo caused by forestation would counteract most of that effect. So, although forestation is clearly important, it cannot substitute for reducing emissions. —HJS Dryland forestation would do little to slow global warming.