Iran’s Reformists: From Failure to Sobering Realization

The brutal suppression of the protest wave in Iran has led to a radical shift within the reformist camp toward the regime. Senior reformist figures, who in the past adhered to a cautious and restrained discourse and affirmed their commitment to the Islamic Republic’s core principles, have in recent days expressed positions that challenge the very political conception underpinning the current regime. This shift follows years in which reformists emphasized the necessity of evolutionary change over revolutionary transformation. Together the reformists’ persistent failures to advance the necessary reforms, these positions have generated growing public disappointment with the reformist camp and its capacity to serve as a genuine governing alternative.

Nevertheless, given the deadlock confronting the Islamic Republic and the regime’s deepening crisis of legitimacy, reformists have renewed efforts to position themselves as a possible governing alternative, particularly in the absence of other clear domestic political options. Their ability to organize protest at this stage is almost nonexistent, as many of their leaders are imprisoned or marginalized, and public support has eroded significantly. Still, in a scenario involving the erosion of the regime’s foundations, new opportunities may emerge for more moderate domestic leadership, especially under figures who have not participated in decision-making processes during the past decades and some of whom have paid a heavy personal price for their positions. These actors could provide an ideological backbone for the post-regime-erosion phase and serve, perhaps temporarily, as a bridge between the protest phase and the establishment of a new political order.