Investigation of the flight product dynamic choice problem - Preliminary results with simulated respondents

In this research the dynamic choice behavior when choosing airline tickets is investigated. 600 simulated choices over a period of 30 days were created using simulated respondents and real airline itineraries. Estimation is conducted using discrete choice models (e.g., MNL, NL and CNL) with comparison between them. It is assumed that consumers will not choose their itinerary from an initial choice set, but will postpone their decision to a later time (at least one time period) trying to maximize their utilities. In addition, the variables on-time performance (OTP) and frequent flier program (FFP) were estimated. Main finding is that passengers do postpone their choice decisions for an average of 2.5-5.6 days over a choice period of 30 days. In addition, FFP membership and OTP were found to have significant effect on consumers' choices. Although as simulated results should be taken cautiously, these results implies that dynamic behavior do take place and should be further investigated with real respondents.