Invasion trends: An interpretable measure of change is needed to support policy targets

Melodie A. McGeoch, Yehezkel Buba, Eduardo Arlé, Jonathan Belmaker, David A. Clarke, Walter Jetz, Richard Li, Hanno Seebens, Franz Essl, Quentin Groom, Emili García-Berthou, Bernd Lenzner, Carsten Meyer, Joana R. Vicente, John R.U. Wilson, Marten Winter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) calls for a 50% reduction in rates of invasive alien species establishment by 2030. However, estimating changes in rates of introduction and establishment is far from straightforward, particularly on a national scale. Variation in survey effort over time, the absence of data on survey effort, and aspects of the invasion process itself interact in ways that make rate estimates from naive models of invasion trends inaccurate. To support progress toward robust global and national reporting against the GBF invasions target, we illustrate this problem using a combination of simulations, and global and national scale case studies. We provide recommendations and a clear set of steps that are needed for progress. These include routine collection of survey effort data as part of surveillance and monitoring protocols and working closely with researchers to develop meaningful estimates of change in biological invasions. Better awareness of this challenge and investment in developing robust approaches will be required from Parties if progress on Target 6 of the GBF is to be tracked and achieved.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere12981
JournalConservation Letters
Issue number6
StatePublished - 1 Nov 2023


  • Convention on Biological Diversity
  • EU's biodiversity strategy 2030
  • Essential Biodiversity Variables
  • Global Biodiversity Monitoring Framework
  • Target 6
  • invasive alien species
  • rate of establishment
  • species populations data
  • survey effort

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Nature and Landscape Conservation
  • Ecology


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