Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Kai Chen; Evan de Schrijver; Sidharth Sivaraj; Francesco Sera; Noah Scovronick; Leiwen Jiang; Dominic Roye; Eric Lavigne; Jan Kyselý; Aleš Urban; Alexandra Schneider; Veronika Huber; Joana Madureira; Malcolm N. Mistry; Ivana Cvijanovic; Antonio Gasparrini; Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera; Ben Armstrong; Rochelle Schneider; Aurelio Tobias; Christofer Astrom; Yuming Guo; Yasushi Honda; Rosana Abrutzky; Shilu Tong; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva; Patricia Matus Correa; Nicolás Valdés Ortega; Haidong Kan; Samuel Osorio; Hans Orru; Ene Indermitte; Jouni J.K. Jaakkola; Niilo Ryti; Mathilde Pascal; Klea Katsouyanni; Antonis Analitis; Fatemeh Mayvaneh; Alireza Entezari; Patrick Goodman; Ariana Zeka; Paola Michelozzi; Francesca de’Donato; Masahiro Hashizume; Barrak Alahmad; Magali Hurtado Diaz; César De la Cruz Valencia; Ala Overcenco; Danny Houthuijs; Caroline Ameling; Shilpa Rao; Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar; Xerxes Seposo; Susana Pereira da Silva; Iulian Horia Holobaca; Fiorella Acquaotta; Ho Kim; Whanhee Lee; Carmen Íñiguez; Bertil Forsberg; Martina S. Ragettli; Yue Liang Leon Guo; Shih Chun Pan; Shanshan Li; Valentina Colistro; Antonella Zanobetti; Joel Schwartz; Tran Ngoc Dang; Do Van Dung; Hanne Krage Carlsen; John Paul Cauchi; Souzana Achilleos; Raanan Raz

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Kai Chen, Evan de Schrijver, Sidharth Sivaraj, Francesco Sera, Noah Scovronick, Leiwen Jiang, Dominic Roye, Eric Lavigne, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Veronika Huber, Joana Madureira, Malcolm N. Mistry, Ivana Cvijanovic, Antonio Gasparrini, Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, Ben Armstrong, Rochelle Schneider, Aurelio TobiasChristofer Astrom, Yuming Guo, Yasushi Honda, Rosana Abrutzky, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Alireza Entezari, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de’Donato, Masahiro Hashizume, Barrak Alahmad, Magali Hurtado Diaz, César De la Cruz Valencia, Ala Overcenco, Danny Houthuijs, Caroline Ameling, Shilpa Rao, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Xerxes Seposo, Susana Pereira da Silva, Iulian Horia Holobaca, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Martina S. Ragettli, Yue Liang Leon Guo, Shih Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Valentina Colistro, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Hanne Krage Carlsen, John Paul Cauchi, Souzana Achilleos, Raanan Raz

Department of Social Medicine

The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Original language	English
Article number	1796
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	15
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
State	Published - Dec 2024

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General Chemistry
General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Physics and Astronomy

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10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

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Chen, K., de Schrijver, E., Sivaraj, S., Sera, F., Scovronick, N., Jiang, L., Roye, D., Lavigne, E., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Schneider, A., Huber, V., Madureira, J., Mistry, M. N., Cvijanovic, I., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Armstrong, B., Schneider, R., ... Raz, R. (2024). Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels. Nature Communications, 15(1), Article 1796. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

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title = "Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels",

abstract = "Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.",

author = "Kai Chen and {de Schrijver}, Evan and Sidharth Sivaraj and Francesco Sera and Noah Scovronick and Leiwen Jiang and Dominic Roye and Eric Lavigne and Jan Kysel{\'y} and Ale{\v s} Urban and Alexandra Schneider and Veronika Huber and Joana Madureira and Mistry, {Malcolm N.} and Ivana Cvijanovic and Antonio Gasparrini and Vicedo-Cabrera, {Ana M.} and Ben Armstrong and Rochelle Schneider and Aurelio Tobias and Christofer Astrom and Yuming Guo and Yasushi Honda and Rosana Abrutzky and Shilu Tong and {de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho}, Micheline and Saldiva, {Paulo Hilario Nascimento} and Correa, {Patricia Matus} and Ortega, {Nicol{\'a}s Vald{\'e}s} and Haidong Kan and Samuel Osorio and Hans Orru and Ene Indermitte and Jaakkola, {Jouni J.K.} and Niilo Ryti and Mathilde Pascal and Klea Katsouyanni and Antonis Analitis and Fatemeh Mayvaneh and Alireza Entezari and Patrick Goodman and Ariana Zeka and Paola Michelozzi and Francesca de{\textquoteright}Donato and Masahiro Hashizume and Barrak Alahmad and Diaz, {Magali Hurtado} and {De la Cruz Valencia}, C{\'e}sar and Ala Overcenco and Danny Houthuijs and Caroline Ameling and Shilpa Rao and Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar and Xerxes Seposo and {da Silva}, {Susana Pereira} and Holobaca, {Iulian Horia} and Fiorella Acquaotta and Ho Kim and Whanhee Lee and Carmen {\'I}{\~n}iguez and Bertil Forsberg and Ragettli, {Martina S.} and Guo, {Yue Liang Leon} and Pan, {Shih Chun} and Shanshan Li and Valentina Colistro and Antonella Zanobetti and Joel Schwartz and Dang, {Tran Ngoc} and {Van Dung}, Do and Carlsen, {Hanne Krage} and Cauchi, {John Paul} and Souzana Achilleos and Raanan Raz",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2024.",

year = "2024",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z",

language = "الإنجليزيّة",

volume = "15",

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Chen, K, de Schrijver, E, Sivaraj, S, Sera, F, Scovronick, N, Jiang, L, Roye, D, Lavigne, E, Kyselý, J, Urban, A, Schneider, A, Huber, V, Madureira, J, Mistry, MN, Cvijanovic, I, Gasparrini, A, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Armstrong, B, Schneider, R, Tobias, A, Astrom, C, Guo, Y, Honda, Y, Abrutzky, R, Tong, S, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M, Saldiva, PHN, Correa, PM, Ortega, NV, Kan, H, Osorio, S, Orru, H, Indermitte, E, Jaakkola, JJK, Ryti, N, Pascal, M, Katsouyanni, K, Analitis, A, Mayvaneh, F, Entezari, A, Goodman, P, Zeka, A, Michelozzi, P, de’Donato, F, Hashizume, M, Alahmad, B, Diaz, MH, De la Cruz Valencia, C, Overcenco, A, Houthuijs, D, Ameling, C, Rao, S, Carrasco-Escobar, G, Seposo, X, da Silva, SP, Holobaca, IH, Acquaotta, F, Kim, H, Lee, W, Íñiguez, C, Forsberg, B, Ragettli, MS, Guo, YLL, Pan, SC, Li, S, Colistro, V, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, J, Dang, TN, Van Dung, D, Carlsen, HK, Cauchi, JP, Achilleos, S & Raz, R 2024, 'Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels', Nature Communications, vol. 15, no. 1, 1796. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

AU - Chen, Kai

AU - de Schrijver, Evan

AU - Sivaraj, Sidharth

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Scovronick, Noah

AU - Jiang, Leiwen

AU - Roye, Dominic

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Schneider, Alexandra

AU - Huber, Veronika

AU - Madureira, Joana

AU - Mistry, Malcolm N.

AU - Cvijanovic, Ivana

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Schneider, Rochelle

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Astrom, Christofer

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Honda, Yasushi

AU - Abrutzky, Rosana

AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline

AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento

AU - Correa, Patricia Matus

AU - Ortega, Nicolás Valdés

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Osorio, Samuel

AU - Orru, Hans

AU - Indermitte, Ene

AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.

AU - Ryti, Niilo

AU - Pascal, Mathilde

AU - Katsouyanni, Klea

AU - Analitis, Antonis

AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

AU - Entezari, Alireza

AU - Goodman, Patrick

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Michelozzi, Paola

AU - de’Donato, Francesca

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Alahmad, Barrak

AU - Diaz, Magali Hurtado

AU - De la Cruz Valencia, César

AU - Overcenco, Ala

AU - Houthuijs, Danny

AU - Ameling, Caroline

AU - Rao, Shilpa

AU - Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - da Silva, Susana Pereira

AU - Holobaca, Iulian Horia

AU - Acquaotta, Fiorella

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Lee, Whanhee

AU - Íñiguez, Carmen

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Ragettli, Martina S.

AU - Guo, Yue Liang Leon

AU - Pan, Shih Chun

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Colistro, Valentina

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Schwartz, Joel

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Van Dung, Do

AU - Carlsen, Hanne Krage

AU - Cauchi, John Paul

AU - Achilleos, Souzana

AU - Raz, Raanan

PY - 2024/12

Y1 - 2024/12

N2 - Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

AB - Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85186221798&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

DO - 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

M3 - مقالة

C2 - 38413648

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 15

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 1796

ER -

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

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