Equidistribution of affine random walks on some nilmanifolds

We study quantitative equidistribution in law of affine random walks on nilmanifolds, motivated by a result of Bourgain, Furman, Mozes, and the third named author on the torus. Under certain assumptions, we show that a failure to having fast equidistribution is due to a failure on a factor nilmanifold. Combined with equidistribution results on the torus, this leads to an equidistribution statement on some nilmanifolds such as Heisenberg nilmanifolds. In an appendix we strengthen results of de Saxce and the first named author regarding random walks on the torus by eliminating an assumption on Zariski connectedness of the acting group.