TY - JOUR
T1 - Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth
AU - Cailleret, Maxime
AU - Dakos, Vasilis
AU - Jansen, Steven
AU - Robert, Elisabeth M. R.
AU - Aakala, Tuomas
AU - Amoroso, Mariano M.
AU - Antos, Joe A.
AU - Bigler, Christof
AU - Bugmann, Harald
AU - Caccianaga, Marco
AU - Camarero, Jesus-Julio
AU - Cherubini, Paolo
AU - Coyea, Marie R.
AU - Cufar, Katarina
AU - Das, Adrian J.
AU - Davi, Hendrik
AU - Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo
AU - Gillner, Sten
AU - Haavik, Laurel J.
AU - Hartmann, Henrik
AU - Heres, Ana-Maria
AU - Hultine, Kevin R.
AU - Janda, Pavel
AU - Kane, Jeffrey M.
AU - Kharuk, Viachelsav
AU - Kitzberger, Thomas
AU - Klein, Tamir
AU - Levanic, Tom
AU - Linares, Juan-Carlos
AU - Lombardi, Fabio
AU - Makinen, Harri
AU - Meszaros, Ilona
AU - Metsaranta, Juha M.
AU - Oberhuber, Walter
AU - Papadopoulos, Andreas
AU - Petritan, Any Mary
AU - Rohner, Brigitte
AU - Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel
AU - Smith, Jeremy M.
AU - Stan, Amanda B.
AU - Stojanovic, Dejan B.
AU - Suarez, Maria-Laura
AU - Svoboda, Miroslav
AU - Trotsiuk, Volodymyr
AU - Villalba, Ricardo
AU - Westwood, Alana R.
AU - Wyckoff, Peter H.
AU - Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2019 Cailleret, Dakos, Jansen, Robert, Aakala, Amoroso, Antos, Bigler, Bugmann, Caccianaga, Camarero, Cherubini, Coyea, Čufar, Das, Davi, Gea-Izquierdo, Gillner, Haavik, Hartmann, Hereş, Hultine, Janda, Kane, Kharuk, Kitzberger, Klein, Levanic, Linares, Lombardi, Mäkinen, Mészáros, Metsaranta, Oberhuber, Papadopoulos, Petritan, Rohner, Sangüesa-Barreda, Smith, Stan, Stojanovic, Suarez, Svoboda, Trotsiuk, Villalba, Westwood, Wyckoff and Martínez- Vilalta.
PY - 2019/1/8
Y1 - 2019/1/8
N2 - Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.
AB - Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85062726358&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.01964
DO - https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.01964
M3 - مقالة
SN - 1664-462X
VL - 9
JO - Frontiers in Plant Science
JF - Frontiers in Plant Science
M1 - 1964
ER -