Development of a Risk-Informed Decision Support Model for Protecting an Urban Medical Center from a Nuclear Explosion

A nuclear explosion causes many effects, both immediate and long term. These are experienced over an extremely wide range and include the explosive blast wave, thermal and nuclear radiation, and electromagnetic pulse. Modern urban areas are attractive targets for a nuclear explosion either in the air or as a surface burst in order to create maximal casualties. Because of their central location, medical centers, which routinely serve the community, are very likely to be affected. Medical centers are built in a number of layers with different resistance to a nuclear blast: a relatively strong concrete skeleton, weak peripheral and internal partition walls, fragile systems (electricity, water and air-conditioning) and essential sensitive medical infrastructure. A comprehensive survey of the literature, carried out as part of this research, found very few
studies dealing with the continuing function of medical centers under a nuclear threat, despite their importance in general life and emergency and their crucial importance after a nuclear incident. This study develops a model for decision making, based on risk analysis to a medical center exposed to a nuclear threat, under present conditions and after being structurally retrofitted. The weapon in the model is a 1kT TNT nuclear explosive device which also serves as the standard improvised nuclear explosive device INED, for example by US Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).