Bayesian Approach of Measuring Competitive Crisis

In the first decades of the 18th century, many problems concerning the forward probability term were solved. The problems referred to determining the probability of certain events, given specified conditions; for example, what is the probability of drawing a black ball, given a specific number of white and black balls in an urn? A completely converse problem is the following: What can be said about the number of white and black balls in an urn, given that one or more balls have already been drawn from that urn? Such questions refer to inverse probability, for which the Reverend Thomas Bayes (1702-1761) was the first to provide a solution.