Asteroid Collisions: Expected Visibility and Rate

Asteroid collisions are one of the main processes responsible for the evolution of bodies in the main belt. Using observations of the Dimorphos impact by the DART spacecraft, we estimate how asteroid collisions in the main belt may look in the first hours after the impact. If the DART event is representative of asteroid collisions with a ∼1 m sized impactor, then the light curves of these collisions will rise on timescales of about ≳100 s and will remain bright for about 1 hr. Next, the light curve will decay on a few hours' timescale to an intermediate luminosity level in which it will remain for several weeks, before slowly returning to its baseline magnitude. This estimate suffers from several uncertainties due to, e.g., the diversity of asteroid composition, their material strength, and spread in collision velocities. We estimate that the rate of collisions in the main belt with energy similar to or larger than the DART impact is of the order of 7000 yr⁻¹ (±1 dex). The large range is due to the uncertainty in the abundance of ∼1 m sized asteroids. We estimate the magnitude distribution of such events in the main belt, and we show that ∼6% of these events may peak at magnitudes brighter than 21. The detection of these events requires a survey with ≲1 hr cadence and may contribute to our understanding of the asteroids’ size distribution, collisional physics, and dust production. With an adequate survey strategy, new survey telescopes may regularly detect asteroid collisions.