Approximate inference of outcomes in probabilistic elections

Batya Kenig, Benny Kimelfeld

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

We study the complexity of estimating the probability of an outcome in an election over probabilistic votes. The focus is on voting rules expressed as positional scoring rules, and two models of probabilistic voters: the uniform distribution over the completions of a partial voting profile (consisting of a partial ordering of the candidates by each voter), and the Repeated Insertion Model (RIM) over the candidates, including the special case of the Mallows distribution. Past research has established that, while exact inference of the probability of winning is computationally hard (#P-hard), an additive polynomial-time approximation (additive FPRAS) is attained by sampling and averaging. There is often, though, a need for multiplicative approximation guarantees that are crucial for important measures such as conditional probabilities. Unfortunately, a multiplicative approximation of the probability of winning cannot be efficient (under conventional complexity assumptions) since it is already NP-complete to determine whether this probability is nonzero. Contrastingly, we devise multiplicative polynomial-time approximations (multiplicative FPRAS) for the probability of the complement event, namely, losing the election.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication33rd AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2019, 31st Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, IAAI 2019 and the 9th AAAI Symposium on Educational Advances in Artificial Intelligence, EAAI 2019
Pages2061-2068
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9781577358091
StatePublished - 2019
Event33rd AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2019, 31st Annual Conference on Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence, IAAI 2019 and the 9th AAAI Symposium on Educational Advances in Artificial Intelligence, EAAI 2019 - Honolulu, United States
Duration: 27 Jan 20191 Feb 2019

Publication series

Name33rd AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2019, 31st Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, IAAI 2019 and the 9th AAAI Symposium on Educational Advances in Artificial Intelligence, EAAI 2019

Conference

Conference33rd AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AAAI 2019, 31st Annual Conference on Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence, IAAI 2019 and the 9th AAAI Symposium on Educational Advances in Artificial Intelligence, EAAI 2019
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityHonolulu
Period27/01/191/02/19

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Artificial Intelligence

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Approximate inference of outcomes in probabilistic elections'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this