A frequency based transit assignment model that considers online information

This paper develops a frequency based transit assignment model considering that online information of predicted arrival times is available to passengers. The methodology is developed for two information levels: (1) full, where the arrival times are available for all intermediate stops in the candidate paths, and (2) partial, where the arrival times are available at the boarding stop only. Passengers are assumed to consider the estimated arrival times together with the expected travel time when choosing their path. The assignment procedure includes the finding of attractive paths, setting of route choice decision rules for different cases of predicted arrival times, and the probability calculation for these different cases. The developed model is illustrated by an application for the Winnipeg network. In comparison to the well-known optimal strategies method, the suggested model produced significantly different assignment results and a notable reduction in the total travel time. The results illustrate the potential impact of online information on assignment results, and emphasize the need for its consideration in planning models.